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Calculating Sample Size for 1 Proportion

Six Sigma projects using Defects per Unit (DPU), Defects per Opportunity (DPO) or Defects per Million Opportunities (DPMO) as the primary metric on the Big Y, the characteristic being improved, is measuring attribute data which is of the binomial form.  In these projects, it is often necessary to test hypotheses on a population proportion – in many cases using the 1 proportion hypothesis test.  Determining sample size for the 1 proportion hypothesis test can be a confusing task for a Black Belt and therefore the focus of this article.  <more>

 

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8 Disciplines Problem Solving Methodology 

Sunday, May 20, 2012 10:36:00 AM

8 Disciplines, also known as Global 8D (G8D) has been around since the late 1980’s and has its origin at Ford Motor Company.  Once limited to automotive manufacturing , it has now become the de facto problem solving method at organizations all over the world.  Unfortunately, there is not a lot written about 8D outside of corporate training programs . . . until now.

Amazon.com has just released “8 Disciplines - The Problem Solving Methodology” in eBook format.  Readable on Kindle, tablets, Smartphones, Windows PC’s & Mac, this eBook provides thorough coverage of each step in the 8D methodology.  At $9.99, this eBook is fantastic value! 

Here’s what’s inside:

1.       An argument for employing a structured approach to problem solving

2.       A list, and brief review, of problem solving methods

3.       The history of 8D

4.       Key information to be collected before the 8D commences

5.       How to select team members

6.       A fool proof method of defining a problem

7.       The “7 Must’s” of Containment

8.       The 4 levels of a problem

9.       A sure fire way to test logic

10.   18 Root Cause tools

11.   35 techniques for identifying corrective action

12.   9 methods of verifying Root Cause

13.   How to overcome resistance to changes necessary to prevent recurrence

14.   How to reward high performing teams

15.   The 8D Report

“8 Disciplines - The Problem Solving Methodology” can be purchased directly from Amazon.com or by clicking the icon in the upper left corner of the Home page.  By following the instructions in this book, it is possible, even expected, that Root Cause will be found and preventive measures implemented the first time the process is followed.

Michael

Help for Belts – Tip # 57 (Generating a Project Pipeline) 

Tuesday, May 15, 2012 9:57:00 PM

Last time we looked at one possible approach to getting started in a new job as an improvement professional.  Interview key staff, ask probing questions , and listen – really listen to the responses.  This is a great start; one that will be appreciated by leadership.  At this stage of your tenure live by the motto “people won’t care how much you know until they know how much you care”.

Let’s now look at two assessment tools that can be used to generate a project pipeline; a Heat Map and Value Stream Map.
 
Heat Map
Although not typically covered in Process Improvement training, the Heat Map is excellent for identifying improvement opportunities in an organization, particularly when looking at the organizations strategic strengths and weaknesses.  A Heat Map is a 2D matrix where numbers are substituted with colors and the intensity of the color corresponds to the level of the measurement.  Typically, the darker the color the more serious the issue.  These are the “hot spots”.  They can represent areas requiring financial improvement, strategic importance or quality improvement.  Heat Maps can take numerous forms including: a department level or functional organization chart, geographical maps, a graphical user interface, matrix of functions within an organization, etc.  Once complete, the “hot spots” are targeted and improvement projects identified.
 
Value Stream Map (VSM)
While creating a product or service to meet customer specifications, the resources used in each activity either adds value or they don’t add value.  The resources consumed, such as material, time, people, or equipment, that do not add value, add cost and are therefore waste.  The Value Stream Map is used to make waste in a process, visible. 
 
It accomplishes this by documenting the process, related cycle & queue times, value and non-value added activities.  It is an excellent tool for identifying time related problems.  To assist with identifying waste, I use the 7 Wastes Evaluation.xls also.  It’s like adding magnifying glasses to the Value Stream Map.
 
The VSM highlights one or more of the seven wastes: Transportation, Inventory, Motion, Waiting, Over Production, Over Processing and Defects.  It is not particularly suitable for identifying the 8th waste, the waste of underutilized people.
Both the Heat Map and Value Stream Map will individually generate a significant project pipeline.  It is not uncommon for the VSM to generate 10 to 50 projects and the Heat Map to generate the same or more.  With projects identified, the task of prioritization can begin.
 
Michael
6ixSigma.org online training is located here.

Help for Belts – Tip # 56 (What Should I Improve First?) 

Tuesday, May 08, 2012 10:13:00 PM

You’ve just been brought in as the organizations first process improvement professional.  The ad you answered emphasized the need to be a self starter.  It’s your first day on the job - where do you start?

 The answer is . . . “it depends”.  It depends on whether you know the industry, have friends or acquaintances in the organization, came from a competitor, supplier, are a previous customer, have experience, are expected to develop an improvement plan, execute an existing plan, etc., etc.  Let’s explore a few different ways to get started.

Assume the organization doesn’t have an improvement plan, other than to fill your position.  To begin, you can:

1.       Interview key leadership.

2.       Ask: What is the biggest problem?, What’s not working?, What errors do you observe?, What customer complaints are you receiving?, What do you want to see more of, or less of?, What is driving the high overtime?, What keeps you awake at night?, What brings you in to work early in the morning and keeps you at work late at night?

3.       Based on the answers received, affinitize the results and consolidate them into a preliminary list of improvement initiatives

4.       Prioritize the initiatives using a C&E Matrix, Prioritizer or Decision Matrix – download here.

5.       Put together a 30-60-90 day plan.  Be sure it includes: value stream/product or product line affected, objective of the initiative, anticipated cost savings, type of project (Green Belt, Black Belt, Kaizen, Just Do It), preliminary start date & project lead.

6.       Have the 30-60-90 day plan signed off by leadership.

It should be obvious that planning is important.  Develop a sense of how much planning is required before the 30-60-90 is launched.  I’ve known individuals who were very good at planning but had difficulty executing.  Execution of the plan is, arguably, the most important part.  ‘Belts’ that I mentor have had it emphasized over and over that at the end of the day, we must make improvements that are useful to the business.  Planning comes first but it must be followed soon after with execution.

Moreover, it will be very important to show results soon after the plan is executed.  To do this, have a mix of short term projects that tackle low hanging fruit and longer term projects that address more difficult problems.  My experience tells me that some organizations will give up on improving, if and when they know someone is being hired to lead the effort.  Initiatives that would routinely be launched are suddenly put on hold due to <insert reason>.  This is actually good news for you because they can be the low fruit you need.

In the next few posts we’ll look at using a Heat Map and Value Stream Map as tools of assessment in generating improvement ideas.

Michael

6ixSigma.org online training is located here.

Help for Belts – Tip # 55 (Lean Six Sigma . . . What’s Next?) 

Tuesday, May 01, 2012 11:27:00 PM

As global standards rise, goods and service providers must also rise, or else be relegated to the heap of the “once promising” but “now irrelevant”.  To avoid the latter, some organizations are using Six Sigma, some Lean and recently some are using Lean Six Sigma.  What’s the difference?  Lean: provides the unimpeded flow of goods and services to customers, through waste elimination.  Lean focuses on improving process velocity.  Six Sigma: reduces process defects through variation reduction.  Six Sigma focuses on process quality.  Lean Six Sigma is without a doubt the quintessential example of 1+1 being greater than 2.  Having the tools to increase process velocity while also improving process quality or capability is a powerful combination.  So isn’t it enough?  Do we need anything else?  I recall . . .

talking with a colleague of mine whose organization trained their ‘Belts’ in the DMAIC or Lean or DMADV methodology with no cross over.  I asked him, how do you manage resources?  How do you overcome the inevitable scenario where a ‘Belt’ is asked to help lead an improvement initiative, only to find out, it is primarily a Lean problem and the ‘Belt’ was DMAIC trained?  Or a ‘Belt’ is assigned to a project that is believed to be a variation problem but when the team dug a little deeper, they found out it was largely a DMADV problem.  These scenarios happen often and wreak havoc with improvement success.  To mitigate this kind of thing, where do we go next?  Do we need to go anywhere? 

I see the next big improvement methodology consisting of Lean Six Sigma integrated with DMADV.  DMADV (or DFSS), has always been treated separately from DMAIC.  Not so coincidently, many projects I have Championed or Mentored over the years, required creative solutions where concepts from Lean, DMAIC & DMADV were used.  Combining Lean, Six Sigma (DMAIC) and DMADV into an integrated methodology, an Extreme Six Sigma methodology, will be the next process improvement model.  Organizations want their ‘Belts’ to be skilled and experienced in all three disciplines of Six Sigma, so that improvement challenges of any kind can be handled by anyone.  Doable?  Not only is it doable . . . it is being done.  At 6ixSigma.org, our training has always integrated the three disciplines.  Presenting the tools as an integrated methodology keeps the ‘Belts’ from seeing every problem as either a strictly Lean problem or DMAIC problem.  The quicker we can get ourselves out of the training boxes of the past, the faster we’ll look at problems more holistically, and the better off our organizations will be.

I don’t have the inside track on this (obviously) and I might be very wrong about the Extreme Six sigma approach in the future.  It might be called something else.  What I do believe strongly in is this . . . whether we call it Extreme Six Sigma or Statistical Engineering or <insert label>, our approach to problem solving in the future will be grounded in data and the scientific method.  Insight will be obtained, and decisions made, based on analysis.  The good news . . . as I look across the tool set of Extreme Six Sigma, I don’t see anything new.  The tools employed have been around for a very long time and have been vetted through their ability to solve problems – very reassuring.

 

Michael

6ixSigma.org online training is located here.

Help for Belts – Tip # 54 (7 Wastes – Defects) 

Tuesday, April 24, 2012 2:02:00 PM

Rounding out our discussion on 7 Wastes brings us to Defects.  Those pesky occurrences that prevent shipment, employ the rework crew, distracts management, disappoints customers, erodes profitability and strengthens the competitors.  Defects are everywhere; every process has them, every product has them and every person makes them.  And here’s a difficult truth behind defects . . . they’re planned.  They result from a lack of resources, focus, proper design, properly defined specifications, experienced personnel, etc.  . . . all part of managements’ plan (or lack thereof).  Every defect . . .  

is a waste that reduces pay raises, inhibits growth, minimizes bonuses, creates unnecessary overtime, erodes work/like balance and helps build a bad reputation.  To reverse the ‘defect trend’, the first step is uncover where the defect s are occurring.  Begin by using the 6ixSigma.org ‘7 Wastes Evaluation.xls’.  Assess the level of Defect Waste by ranking the following statements using a 1 (never), 3, 5, 7, 9 (always).  High scores indicate high waste and are targets for waste reduction:

For Manufacturing:

1. Mid-processing QC occurs to find problems.

2. "Source Detection" Error Proofing does not exist.

3. Standards are not up to date.

4. Information is not clear.

5. Machines or people are not capable.

For Office Applications:

1. Mid-processing QC occurs.

2. "Source Detection" Error Proofing does not exist.

3. Data cleansing or normalization is necessary.

4. Post processing QC occurs.

5. Rerunning jobs is necessary without a change in customer requirements

 In the factory, defects are easy to detect.  In an office environment, where much of the work is conducted with computers, defects are difficult to detect.  How have you approached the Waste of Defects in the office?  I’d like to hear your experience.

Michael

6ixSigma.org online 7 Wastes training is located here.

Help for Belts – Tip # 53 (7 Wastes – Over Production) 

Tuesday, April 17, 2012 4:34:00 PM

Over Processing vs. Over Production – what’s the difference?  Last time we looked at Over Processing and found that it involves processing beyond what a customer is willing to pay for.  Putting more into a product or service than is required by the customer specification.  In a similar fashion, Over Production is producing more than the customer has purchased.  The obvious question is why would more items be produced than what the customer has ordered?  There are several reasons . . .

production batch sizes primarily sized to ‘amortize’ long setup times (e.g. attempting to lower unit cost), unpredictable processes, lack of standards, poor performing suppliers, ineffective communication, bad forecasting, inadequate data analytic capability, etc.

Over Production in the factory is one of the easiest wastes to see.  In an office or service environment, Over Production is difficult to find but is made easier using the 6ixSigma.org ‘7 Wastes Evaluation.xls’.  Assess the level of Over Production by ranking the following statements using a 1 (never), 3, 5, 7, 9 (always).  High scores indicate high waste and are targets for waste reduction:

For Manufacturing:

1. Parts are manufactured "Just in Case".

2. Misinformation results in more parts being produced than required.

3. Employee's lack of skill results in producing more than required.

4. Lack of standards result in overproduction.

5. Lack of organization results in overproduction.

For Office Applications:

1. There is more than one system used to capture/process data.

2. Duplicate records are generated from the same data element.

3. External "job aides" are necessary to support this process.

4. Double checking is used to validate the quality of the work.

5. 2 or more people perform the same task - without knowledge of the other person also doing it.

 A typical mid-sized organization has a staggering 16,000 hidden information factories – 16,000!  With the recent push to harness the power of corporate data, hidden information factories must be eliminated.  How many data factories does your organization have?

Michael

6ixSigma.org online 7 Wastes training is located here.

Help for Belts – Tip # 52 (7 Wastes – Over Processing) 

Tuesday, April 10, 2012 3:42:00 PM

Do you recall the ‘invoice test’?  It goes like this . . . if all activities were detailed on an invoice to a customer . . . if everything you did inside the organization (related to their product) was transparent to them, what would they be willing to pay for?  Any activity they are not willing to pay for is waste.  Over Processing is the next waste we will review.

Over Processing is defined as processing beyond the standard required by the customer or more data processing than is required by the customer (report formatting, analysis, etc.)  Over Processing can be a difficult waste to identify.  It hides out in: excessive inspection, features that are not important to the customer, tolerances that are too tight, outdated standards or standards that are too high, excessive packaging, misunderstanding or misinterpretation of customer or regulatory requirements, engineering requirements, excessive data analytics, report formatting, unnecessary data transformations, etc.  These are all difficult to detect until a deep dive of the process is done.  Deep diving requires that a critical look be given to the process and everything in the process is challenged.

Using the 6ixSigma.org ‘7 Wastes Evaluation.xls’, assess the level of Over Processing in your organization by ranking the following statements using a 1 (never), 3, 5, 7, 9 (always).  High scores indicate high waste and are targets for waste reduction:

For Manufacturing:

1. Production standards are not well understood.

2. Production standards are not reviewed regularly.

3. "We've always done it this way" is commonly heard on the shop floor.

4. Improvement ideas are rarely acted upon.

5. QC is a fundamental part of production.

For Office Applications:

1. There are reports, notices, updates, summaries, etc. generated that are not used.

2. Information is captured or stored in multiple applications.

3. Data is transcribed.

4. Multiple steps are needed to accomplish a task when fewer steps are possible.

5. Data is transformed and put into another location.

 A full 95% of what the typical employee does, never gets "consumed" or used by someone else .

Is your organization committed to eliminating waste?  I mean really committed?  Or are you being asked to go through the motions?

Michael

6ixSigma.org online 7 Wastes training is located here.

Help for Belts – Tip # 51 (7 Wastes – Waiting) 

Tuesday, April 03, 2012 2:58:00 PM

Recall that one acronym used to identify the seven wastes is TIM WOOD.  We’ve looked at TIM, and are now moving onto WOOD beginning with Waiting.  In a manufacturing environment, Waiting is defined as people or parts waiting for a work cycle to be completed.  In an office, Waiting is the delay from when information is known to someone in the enterprise to when it is used.  Consider the causes of Waiting . . .

process bottlenecks, lack of machine availability, material shortages, unreliable suppliers, lack of multi-skilling or flexibility, downtime, ineffective maintenance, poor quality, poor engineering, lost items, insufficient communication, centralized inspection, poor communication, unsynchronized process steps, poor process flow, machine warm up and/or cool down, multi-tasking.  What other causes have you come across?

This is a very diverse list and how these causes manifest themselves in the organization is also very diverse.  Waiting can be as obvious as someone standing around with no work, or it can be as ‘invisible’ as someone frequenting the restroom.  Let’s look at a few ways Waiting may be disguised: talking with other employees, looking busy, taking breaks, extended lunches, attending meetings, cleaning up the area, conducting 5S, reading manuals, reworking something that doesn’t really need it, etc.  Using the 6ixSigma.org ‘7 Wastes Evaluation.xls’, assess the level of Waiting waste in your organization by ranking the following statements using a 1 (never), 3, 5, 7, 9 (always).  High scores indicate high waste and targets for waste reduction:

For Manufacturing:

1. There is a delay between the time parts are available and when they are used.

2. The customer is left waiting for the process to respond.

3. The start/completion of this process is not synchronized with supplier and customer.

4. Batch sizing has not been implemented.

5. Employees have to chase missing parts.

For Office Applications:

1. There is a delay between the time the information is available and when it is used.

2. The customer is left waiting for the process to respond.

3. The start/completion of this process is not synchronized with supplier and customer.

4. Batch sizing has not been implemented.

5. Employees have to chase missing or inaccurate information.

Anecdotally, 50% of Lead Time is waiting.  It can be very difficult to detect, even in the factory.  Diligence and persistence is the only way this profit robbing culprit will be successfully ferreted out and eradicated.

Is your organization committed to eliminating waste?  What techniques have you used to chase down the waste of Waiting?

Michael

6ixSigma.org online 7 Wastes training is located here.

Help for Belts – Tip # 50 (7 Wastes – Motion) 

Tuesday, March 27, 2012 8:51:00 PM

The first time I completed a spaghetti diagram I followed an operator around his work area that consisted of 2 machines and 5 work benches, all contained within a 54 x 30 foot area.  I was interested in learning how far the operator walked during one 8 hour shift.  It was 4,379 feet – the better part of 1 mile, all waste!  The waste of motion.  I was relaying my findings to the manager of a plant that made similar product and he told me how he “measured” the waste of motion.

Each morning he would stand at 1 of 4 strategic locations in the factory for 15 minutes and watch the foot traffic.  One morning he decided to ask an employee where he was going.  The employee told him he was going to get a gage from the Quality Department.  When the employee was done with the gage, he had to return it because other employees also used the gage.  The plant manager made an inquiry and discovered that the cost of an additional gage was less than $50 – he purchased one for every employee that used them.  The nominal amount of money invested for gages ended up saving the organization a significant sum of money previously wasted on Motion.

The waste of Motion is defined as any movement of people or equipment that does not add value to the product or service, or in the office it is defined as keying in more information than is necessary.  Using the 6ixSigma.org ‘7 Wastes Evaluation.xls’, assess the level of Motion waste in your organization by ranking the following statements using a 1 (never), 3, 5, 7, 9 (always).  High scores indicate high waste and targets for waste reduction:

For Manufacturing:

1. Needed tools are not stored at their Point of Use (POU).

2. Information or work instructions are kept outside the area.

3. The process forces employees to leave the area in order to continue production.

4. Switching between machines is necessary to accomplish the work.

5. Communication forces employees to leave the area frequently.

For Office Applications:

1. Information that is keyed or captured is not used.

2. Data keyed/captured is manipulated within a data container.

3. Meetings, phone calls, emails, etc. are a result of miscommunication.

4. Switching between systems is necessary to accomplish the work.

5. Data is keyed or captured more than once.

Detecting Motion in the factory can be a simple matter of monitoring the amount of foot traffic.  If people are walking from A to B and if the walking can’t be invoiced to a customer, it’s waste.   In the office, Motion is much harder to see.  Anecdotally, 38% of a knowledge workers time is spent keying/rekeying data.  This is not impossible, but certainly impractical, to detect.  Although it likely won’t top the list of office waste, it is nonetheless a thief that erodes margins.

.

Michael

6ixSigma.org online 7 Wastes training is located here.

Help for Belts – Tip # 49 (7 Wastes – Inventory) 

Tuesday, March 20, 2012 10:05:00 AM

It is reported that in 2011, Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, called inventory “fundamentally evil”.  Over the years I’ve heard many accountants, Controllers and VP’s of Finance say essentially the same thing – inventory is a bad thing.  But how can that be?  If it wasn’t for raw materials or purchased components (two types of inventory) we wouldn’t be able to make the products we sell.  Why, in many organizations, is there so much focus on inventory and why is it “fundamentally evil”?  Let me offer a provocative statement . . . inventory is not evil when it is having value added to it and is consequently progressing closer to the customer.  I think that ultimately, inventory is not evil; not converting it to cash . . . is evil.

OK, if that is a true statement then why is inventory one of the 7 Wastes?  The reason is that by looking for inventory, and finding it, tells us something about the processes inability to convert it to cash.  Inventory is not a cause, but an effect.  When we have inventory lying around, it is a symptom of some other problem.  And so, inventory is a powerful story teller, and we must be prepared to listen to the message it is sending.

Inventory as a waste is defined as raw material, work in process, components or finished goods not currently having value added to them.  In the office world it is redundant data sources.  In conjunction with the 6ixSigma.org ‘7 Wastes Evaluation.xls’, assess the level of inventory waste in your organization by ranking the following statements using a 1 (never), 3, 5, 7, 9 (always).  High scores indicate high inventory waste and candidates for waste reduction:

For Manufacturing:

1. Setup or Changeover times are more than 1 minute.

2. If a defect is found it usually affects multiple parts.

3. Upstream processes are unreliable.

4. Suppliers are unreliable.

5. More than the minimum number of parts are kept in the area.

For Office Applications:

1. Multiple instances of a single data element exist.

2. If a defect is found in one instance, it must be corrected in multiple instances.

3. The process specifically requires multiple instances of data.

4. There are no processes in place to remove data from a powered container.

5. More than the minimum number of instances exists.

Fortunately, raw material, work in progress, components and finished goods inventory are easy to see.  Walk through any factory and assess the effectiveness of the process by observing the amount of inventory waiting to have value added.

In the office, inventory is harder to see.  Anecdotally, large organizations store a single fact of data 10 times.  That is, 10 times, when 1 time is sufficient.  Imagine the time, effort, system requirements, management processes, etc. it takes to maintain this.  What customer would be willing to pay an organization to manage 1 fact of data in 10 locations?

As I’ve said before, Waste is a thief – and if it is not eradicated, it will rob you until you are out of business.

Michael

6ixSigma.org online 7 Wastes training is located here.

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